January 2025 Employment Report

The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey of employers. The increase was below consensus expectations for a gain of 175,000. However, the prior two months were revised higher by a cumulative 100,000. Employment “gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry”, according to BLS. Annual benchmark revisions to the data reduced the pace of monthly job growth in 2024 from 186,000 to 166,000.

The BLS’s survey of households reported the unemployment rate at 4.0% in January, down from 4.1% in December. Benchmark revisions raised the size of the household labor force by 2.1 million due mostly to updated immigration numbers from census data. Average hourly earnings — a proxy for wage growth — rose 0.5% for the month and 4.1% vs. a year ago. Both figures were above consensus estimates.

Bottom line

Employment news was mixed, given the impact of benchmark revisions. The data confirmed that monthly job growth is solid but has slowed somewhat. The larger than expected rise in hourly earnings may be of some concern to the Federal Reserve given its focus on wage inflation. However, January data is notoriously subject to revision. All in all, this data supports last week’s message from the Fed that monetary policy is likely on hold for a period of months. Early market reaction was minimal for equity futures and produced a moderate rise in bond yields.

Source: Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics.