The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey of employers.  The increase was above expectations for a gain of 190,000.  Job gains in the prior two months were revised lower by 111,000.  The economy added 177,000 on average over the trailing 3 months versus a 212,300 average at the end of 2023.  June marks the slowest 3-month pace since January 2021 and confirms the slowdown we have been seeing in the weekly jobless claims data.  Three-month gains have been led by health care and local government sectors.   Mining and temporary help positions were lower over the prior three months.

The BLS’s survey of households reported an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1 % in July from 4.0% in the prior month.  Unemployment has been in a range of 3.7% to 3.9% for the last 7 months.  The size of the U.S. labor force increased by 277,000 while the survey of households revealed an increase in the number of unemployed individuals by 162,000. 

Average hourly earnings – a proxy for wage growth – rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% vs. a year ago. The monthly data was in line with consensus expectations.   The 3-month annualized rate of wage growth decelerated to 3.6% from 4.0% in the prior month. 

Source: Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Bottom line:  While the headline increase in jobs was more than expected revisions in the prior two months reveal a slower trend in the U.S. labor market.  Short-term interest rate markets expect two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and have priced in a 75% chance of a move at the September 18 meeting.

Gary Pzegeo, CFA  joined the firm in 2007 as head of fixed income, focusing on portfolio management, trading, policy formulation and client service.