The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its short-term target for policy rates steady at today’s meeting and laid the groundwork for a rate cut at its next meeting in September. The Fed acknowledged moderation in the labor market and further deceleration in inflation, but retained language stating a requirement for greater confidence before making the first rate cut.

Current Conditions – The economy has grown at a solid pace since the Fed’s last meeting, but job gains have moderated.  The Fed sees the risks of higher inflation and weaker growth in better balance.  The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was down to 2.6% through June while the unemployment rate was up to 4.1% from a low of 3.4% in early 2023.  Powell noted that the quality of the current disinflation is better than what the Fed saw late last year thanks to improved housing and services inflation data. 

Forward Guidance – The Fed slightly tilted its language on the balance of risks (inflation and growth) to indicate that it is closer to making a rate cut.  Powell repeated a phrase from earlier in the year by saying the Fed would like to see “more good data” before committing to a cut.  Interest rate markets have been fully discounting a September 18 rate cut since the release of June’s CPI data.

Policy/Market Reaction – Today’s move was unanimously approved by the Committee.  The Fed’s release and Powell’s press conference did not explicitly guarantee a September rate cut.  Interest rate markets were marginally weaker, but markets have not backed away from previous expectations on the Fed’s next steps.

Gary Pzegeo, CFA  joined the firm in 2007 as head of fixed income, focusing on portfolio management, trading, policy formulation and client service.