The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, according to the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey of employers. The increase was above consensus expectations for a gain of 51,000. The prior two months were revised down by a cumulative 33,000.  Employment “continued to trend up in health care, food services…and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government”, according to BLS. Despite the beat vs. expectations for September, payroll employment gains have averaged just 58,000/month over the last six months.

The BLS’s survey of households reported the unemployment rate at 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August. The unemployment rate has fluctuated in a tight range between 4.0% and 4.4% since May 2024. Average hourly earnings  a proxy for wage growth — rose 0.2% for the month and 3.8% vs. a year ago. Both figures were below consensus estimates.

Bottom line:  Financial market reaction to the report was modestly bullish. Futures markets had already priced in a less than 50/50 chance of a December rate cut after the release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and that remains the case after the jobs data.This report may be of limited value to the Federal Reserve. By the time the next FOMC meeting occurs on December 9^th and 10th, this data will be three months old. The combined October/November jobs report will not be released until after the next FOMC meeting, so policymakers will need to rely on other sources to gauge the health of the job market. What we do know is that through September, trends in both the payroll and household reports point to a job market that has cooled off.  
 

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Dave Donabedian, CFA, is co-chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth. His responsibilities include oversight of internal investment strategies and the external manager selection platform.​