The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.50% and announced the beginning of its balance sheet reduction program.  The rate increase was largely expected by markets given the Fed’s recognition of inflation risks over the last several months. Current Conditions – The Fed noted continued strength in household spending and business fixed investment despite a reduction in headline...

After hovering at or below 2% for nearly a decade, US inflation rates spiked to more than 7% in late 2021, breaking 40-year highs.1 The Federal Reserve initially declared the jump as “transitory,” resulting from the ongoing pandemic and related supply chain challenges. However, inflation showed no signs of slowing as the new year dawned, leaving investors to ask how high rates will eventually...

March key drivers Although the conflict in Ukraine continued into its second month, markets—particularly in the US—were more impacted by the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening, and the possibility for a slowdown in economic activity. Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 3.7% for the month, while the MSCI EAFE Index was up 0.6%. US REITs, infrastructure and commodities...

VIEW AS PDF In our annual outlook published at the beginning of January, the CIBC Asset Allocation Committee projected: “The Fed’s policy pivot, fluctuating COVID trends, and multiple tense geopolitical issues suggest higher stock market volatility this year.” While that has proven to be true, it could also be argued that we were masters of understatement. At this writing, the S&P 500 is...

View as PDF Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 represents the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II. The geopolitical fallout will have both short- and long-term consequences. We encourage you to view the accompanying webinar (To access the webinar, please reach out to a member of your CIBC Private Wealth team for the password), recorded on March 1, for a full analysis of...

View as PDF The territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for years but took a decidedly negative turn in the last 48 hours. After amassing about 190,000 troops1 near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated the crisis on Monday, February 21 by declaring in a speech to his country that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by...

January key drivers The new year resulted in a reassessment of potential risks by investors. The month ended with the S&P 500 index falling more than 5%, and non US markets trading down more than 3%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index. Expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with concerns over a slowing growth environment put pressure on risk...

As the global economy gradually reopens after a prolonged COVID-19 shutdown, supply chain bottlenecks have dominated news headlines. Disruption to the semiconductor industry has received perhaps the most publicity because the computer chip has such wide-ranging applications. In taking a look at the global microchip shortage and its potential impact on investors, we conclude by recommending...

December key drivers Despite concerns over the spread of the omicron variant and the potential impact on the global economy, global equities moved higher in December to close out a strong year. The S&P 500 gained more than 4%, the MSCI EAFE index gained 4% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 1.8%. Credit markets were lower as a move towards higher interest rates continued,...

The Federal Reserve has been busy reframing market expectations over the past several weeks in response to higher than expected inflation releases. Today’s decision to accelerate its tapering of asset purchases met the market’s reset expectations. The Chairman has discussed a desire to complete the Fed’s tapering prior to an actual move to raise rates in order to avoid sending conflicting...

November key drivers Global financial markets were hit hard at the end of November as news of a new Covid strain emerged. The S&P 500 was positive for much of the month but ended down slightly. Non-US equities, both developed and emerging markets, closed lower by more than 4% for the month. The risk-off shift in markets came as a result of the newly discovered Omicron virus variant that...

Q: What’s your outlook on Fed action and raising of rates? A: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already begun a plan to reduce its monthly buying of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in response to stubbornly high inflation and improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s conditions for moving from “tapering” of asset purchases to actually increasing short-term interest rates include the...

With the jobless rate falling, just how much room there is for a further hiring boom is now a salient question for both the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation outlook. Of late, there’s a sense that going through the pandemic has left some permanent marks on the labor market, making people less willing to work, less eager to fill certain kinds of jobs and requiring higher wages...

September key drivers Not since January 2021 has the S&P 500 posted a negative return for the month. With increasing concerns over economic growth, inflation and the path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighing on global markets, the S&P 500 posted nearly a 5% decline. Energy and broad-based commodities fared well given supply chain issues and demand across the...

Q: What is your current view on inflation (transitory, going higher, stable at higher level than in prior years), and what does that mean for the general population? A: The current pace of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is running above 5%. We believe this pace will calm down over the next few months; however, we think it will remain well above the Federal Reserve’s...