CIBC Private Wealth Management Blog
Gary Pzegeo, CFA
Investments

FOMC Cuts Rates by 0.25%

Gary Pzegeo, CFA
October 30, 2019

The FOMC did as the market expected by cutting short-term rates 0.25%. Forward guidance from the Fed has been more difficult to discern. Chairman Powell described prior rate cuts as insurance against weak global manufacturing and uncertain trade policy rather than the beginning of a prolonged easing cycle. Regardless, markets tended to project multiple rate cuts extending through next year....
Investments

FOMC Cuts Rates by 0.25%

Gary Pzegeo, CFA
September 19, 2019

Earlier this week, I shared a short clip with my thoughts on what could come of the FOMC meeting. Divergence between market expectations and Fed messaging has been an ongoing theme over the past several months.  Markets have been pricing in a series of rate cuts and the Fed has been guiding toward a more moderate path.  The Fed may have cut its policy rate by 0.25%, but the...
Investments

FOMC lowers rates by 0.25%

Gary Pzegeo, CFA
July 31, 2019

All signs point to the Fed taking out an insurance policy for the U.S. economy against global weakness and trade uncertainties.  The Chairman was also quick to state that today’s cut wasn’t necessarily “one and done.” Here is a summary of today’s release: Growth & Inflation There was very little change in how the Fed characterized the economic environment when compared to its...
Investments

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, but Sends a Dovish Signal to Markets

Gary Pzegeo, CFA
June 19, 2019

Market anticipation for easier Fed policy has been building since April to the point where futures for short term interest rates implied two interest rate cuts by the end of this year. So, when the Fed announced no interest rate cut and the median Fed voter projected there would be no cuts in 2019, it would be normal to expect some letdown in market prices. The Fed has been reluctant to...
Investments

FOMC: No Change in Target Rate

Gary Pzegeo, CFA
May 02, 2019

The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting by leaving short-term rates unchanged.  From the perspective of markets, today’s announcement was less about expecting an immediate change to policy and more about setting the table for a rate cut later in the year.  Market implied probabilities of a change at today’s meeting were close to zero, but the odds of a rate cut by the end...